As a rule of thumb…

I’m suspicious of any report which purportedly shows a societal issue or trend that is worsening (such as asserting higher crime rates or harm caused by pornography or worsening racial tensions) which incorporate policy recommendations as part of the report.

In my experience, such reports are a bait and switch: they bait you with a supposedly impartial data showing a problem, but then they switch in a whole bunch of policy recommendations based on this supposed problem.

In reality reports like these are advocacy, not science.

It’s not to suggest reports like this are inaccurate–more to suggest that “accuracy” is not their goal.

Advocacy is.

For those of us with ancestors from all over the world, what are my options?

Don’t Get Caught by the Cultural Appropriation Police This Halloween, Follow These 4 Easy Tips!

Let me summarize the four tips–all gathered in one place by this article, with links:

1. “… whether a particular costume constitutes cultural misappropriation should involve asking the source community.”
2. “Not challenging your white friends when they’re being racist is a form of covert white supremacy.”
3. “Don’t dress up as a culture that’s not your own, or embody a cultural tradition that doesn’t belong to your heritage.”
4. “The best rule of thumb is to play it safe, dress up as a witch or a goblin and leave the ethnic costumes to one side.”

So setting aside the problematic advise given by Jeffrey Browitt, who seems happy to trigger the Wiccan community, I feel like I have a problem here with this list.

I mean, from my family tree, I have a smattering of Scots-Irish, a smattering of British, French, African-American and Salinan Indian–a tribe I happen to be a member of.

Now I could dress up as a Salinan Indian–but in the summer, thanks to a mild climate in California, Salinans wore nothing, and in the winter, because the climate was mild, basically Salinan Indians wore furs (wrapping the firs around them like a blanket) and a moccasin style shoe.

Meaning if I were to dress appropriately according to the earliest Europeans who contacted California, I would be arrested for indecent exposure.

Beyond that, I have to wonder about the advise and how much blood is permitted for me to use a cultural tradition? For example, several generations back I have a black ancestor–giving me about 1% black. Is that enough to dress up in African-American clothing styles?

Of course I could stick to mythological creatures–but is it insulting or not for someone without any Irish heritage to dress up as a Leprechaun? The new rules seem unclear to me. Certainly Native Americans did not have goblins or orcs or elves, so would it be cultural misappropriation to wear pointy ears?

The new rules are so confusing!

And before we simply say “you know what, I’m just going to dress as a slutty cat and call it a day”–remember that such objectification of the female form is seen as disrespectful by religious conservatives feminists.

Let’s be clear. The new rules aren’t just some silly little word game here; it can mean threats to your source of employment.

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I remember a time when the Left was about personal expression above all else.

Those were the good old days.

So be safe, and wear something gray, non-revealing and inoffensive.

Or just be prepared to say “fuck off” to some hypersensitive snowflake or meddling fool, and do your own thing.

Anti-semitism is in the decline in the United States.

A question that was raised on Reddit:

What evidence exists to support or deny a trend towards antisemitism in the U.S.?

George Soros is Jewish, and there are allegations that some of the pushback against him has antisemitic roots (Jewish Financiers secretly controlling the world, etc.). Additionally, Haaretz has just reported that liberal and millenial support is down for the state of Israel. Is this part of a larger trend toward antisemitism in the US?

Evidence: Pro anti-semitism rise: Rasmussen poll in July 2017 found 65% of respondents thought that antisemitism was of concern, and an Anti Defamation League poll from October 2016 showing a majority of Americans for the first time concerned about violence against Jews.

Con: The ADF poll above, part of a series extending back 50 years, finds only a slight increase (2%) in the anti-Semitism in the US overall.

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My answer:

I’ve taken the liberty of downloading the FBI’s Hate Crime Statistics going back to 1996, which attempts to define the number of incidents and offenses where there is an apparent bias against the victim. The hate crime statistics, in Table 1, lists the number of incidents with apparent racial bias, religious bias, sexual orientation bias and the like.

First, it is worth linking to the FBI’s caution about the proper use of these statistics. Many factors can affect crime rates, and it’s also worth noting that the UCR reporting system is not used by some smaller policing agencies.

Second, it’s worth noting that I’m only using the last 20 years which may not capture a reasonable snapshot of long-term trends.

That said, the raw numbers from the UCR (hate crimes, table 1) for anti-Jewish crimes are:

• 2016: 834 offenses
• 2015: 695 offenses
• 2014: 635 offenses
• 2013: 689 offenses
• 2012: 696 offenses
• 2011: 820 offenses
• 2010: 922 offenses
• 2009: 964 offenses
• 2008: 1055 offenses
• 2007: 1010 offenses
• 2006: 1027 offenses
• 2005: 900 offenses
• 2004: 1003 offenses
• 2003: 987 offenses
• 2002: 1039 offenses
• 2001: 1117 offenses
• 2000: 1161 offenses
• 1999: 1198 offenses
• 1998: 1145 offenses
• 1997: 1159 offenses
• 1996: 1182 offenses

Even without comparing against the overall population in the united states we can see a definite downward trend which ends with an upward tick starting in 2015. (This upward tick in crime in 2015 corresponds to an upward tick in all crime starting around the same time.)

One possible explanation is that the overall Jewish population has declined, so crime rates have remained constant. However, I don’t believe this is the case given that the Jewish population has increased from around 5.2 million Jewish persons in 2001 to around 6.7-6.8 million Jewish persons in 2016.

Assuming the growth rate holds constant, this means we’ve seen a decline in offenses against Jewish persons from around 21.5 offenses per 100,000 in 2001 to around 10 offenses per 100,000 in 2014.

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Of course the UCR does not record anti-semitic sentiment, only offenses against Jewish persons. But I would be surprised if the two are not linked: that is, as anti-semitic sentiment increases, offenses against Jewish persons increase and visa-versa.

So–despite the uptick in 2015-2016, if I were a jewish person I would prefer today’s state of affairs over those in the late 1990’s.

“Brother, let me pull out the mote that is in thine eye, when thou thyself beholdest not the beam that is in thine own eye?”

An editorial by Alan Dershowitz:

Avoid temptation to seek partisan advantage from pipe bomb arrest

The arrest of Cesar Sayoc Jr. for the flurry of pipe bombs directed against liberal and left wing icons leaves many questions unanswered. …

The entire episode brings back painful memories of the Weathermen and other radical left wing organizations that planted bombs in the 1970s. The Weathermen and other radical leftist groups targeted universities, army bases, police officers, banks, and other establishment places and people. The death toll was considerable, and the fear was palpable. At about the same time, the Black Panthers, the Symbionese Liberation Army, and other radical leftist groups terrorized the United States.

So far no one has tried to glorify the arrested person responsible for the recent pipe bombs. Although President Trump has condemned the alleged perpetrator, it would not be surprising if some right wing extremists took perverse pleasure and pride in the attacks on the left wing icons. This is different from how some liberals glorified the Weathermen, Black Panthers, and other hard left terrorists. Left wing lawyers, who would never defend an accused right wing terrorist, rushed to represent these radical groups, while prominent liberals contributed to defense funds and attended fundraising parties. Films, books, plays, and articles sought to understand the motives of these young murderers.

Years later, Barack Obama befriended Bill Ayers and Bernardine Dohrn, who had been active members of the Weathermen and supporters of violent terrorism. Both Ayers and Dohrn were invited to teach at well known American universities, as was Kathy Boudin, who had served a long prison term for participating in a terrorist inspired robbery that resulted in the deaths of two police officers and one armored guard and seriously injured another guard. It is difficult to imagine any American universities appointing a right wing terrorist, even one who had served time and claimed to be rehabilitated. It is fair to say that public attitudes held by some liberals were somewhat sympathetic to left wing terrorists.

As they say, read the whole thing.

I sincerely think someone is playing games with the stock market.

The BEA estimates third quarter GDP is up 3.5%, and report real GDP growth in Q2 of 4.5%–well above the average 2% growth we have experienced going back to 2014.

Reported corporate profits from companies which have reported their earnings are generally up–a few unexpectedly so.

And the stock market continues its downward slide–with CNBC announcers scratching their heads and grasping at straws and suggesting “well, we think there may be a 2019 slowdown because that’s the only thing that makes sense to us.”

Of course stock prices decline because, fundamentally, there are more sellers than buyers.

But I can’t help but think someone is playing games here.

When you throw in the fact that in the summer we kept hearing about how Democrats were falling well below fundraising targets–yet suddenly now Democrats seem more than flush with enough cash–and I can’t help but think some very rich people are playing some very expensive games prior to the elections.

While not recommended, I understand why it happened.

California Man Sets Fire to House to Kill Spider

Well, not just a spider, but a black widow spider.

Fresno Fire says a man who was house-sitting for his parents set the home on fire after he used a blowtorch to kill black widows.

Yes, you read that right.

Thankfully, firefighters say no one was injured in the fire and the man who initially called them made it out safely.

I don’t like black windows. Though I generally recommend chemical warfare.

And *this* is how you deal with unwanted attention.

Vigilante justice can be a beautiful thing, and this women delivers it. After she kicks this jerk’s ass, there’s no need to call the police. He just needs an ambulance…L😂Lpic.twitter.com/JXs80EJnrd

— MAGAPatriot🇺🇸Steve (@RealMAGASteve) October 18, 2018

Fishing Warning

I just received an e-mail today from someone who claimed to have hacked my e-mail account and who claimed to have installed monitoring software on my Macintosh.

He even revealed an old insecure password I’ve used on a handful of web sites. (Basically my strategy is that for some web sites, like web sites that have basic social media functions, I use a fairly weak password because I don’t trust those sites to properly encode my password. And if I could pass a law making it illegal in the United States to store a password unencrypted in a web site database, I would.)

He demanded that I pay him nearly $900 in bitcoin to a given account.

Of course the password he gave in the e-mail is one I have never used on sensitive sites such as my banking accounts. Or my e-mail account. Or Facebook. Or, really, anywhere that mattered. Hell, it’s not even a password used on my home computer.

This is, of course, not the first such fishing attempt, but this is the first one that actually gave me a password I had used in the past. (Though, again, not for an account that mattered.)

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Here’s the full text, in case you’re interested:

Hello!

My nickname in darknet is riley47.
I hacked this mailbox more than six months ago, 
through it I infected your operating system with a virus (trojan) created by me and have been monitoring you for a long time.

So, your password from woody@alumni.caltech.edu is *****

Even if you changed the password after that - it does not matter, my virus intercepted all the caching data on your computer
and automatically saved access for me.

I have access to all your accounts, social networks, email, browsing history.
Accordingly, I have the data of all your contacts, files from your computer, photos and videos.

I was most struck by the intimate content sites that you occasionally visit.
You have a very wild imagination, I tell you!

During your pastime and entertainment there, I took screenshot through the camera of your device, synchronizing with what you are watching.
Oh my god! You are so funny and excited!

I think that you do not want all your contacts to get these files, right?
If you are of the same opinion, then I think that $887 is quite a fair price to destroy the dirt I created.

Send the above amount on my BTC wallet (bitcoin): 1EZS92K4xJbymDLwG4F7PNF5idPE62e9XY
As soon as the above amount is received, I guarantee that the data will be deleted, I do not need it.

Otherwise, these files and history of visiting sites will get all your contacts from your device.
Also, I'll send to everyone your contact access to your email and access logs, I have carefully saved it!

Since reading this letter you have 48 hours!
After your reading this message, I'll receive an automatic notification that you have seen the letter.

I hope I taught you a good lesson.
Do not be so nonchalant, please visit only to proven resources, and don't enter your passwords anywhere!
Good luck!

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Here’s the thing.

If you get an e-mail like this–DO NOT PAY.

Immediately change your password if in fact the password happens to match. (The whole “it doesn’t matter if you change your password” in the fishing attempt means changing your password will make a difference.)

Make sure you properly update all your software to get the latest security patches.

If you can, set up the firewall settings on your home network so as not to allow any inbound traffic. (By default most Internet providers do this for you.)

And make sure you have properly backed up your important data.

Also, keep an eye on any important financial accounts, because the bottom line is that these assholes are out for money–and they will trick you if they can to get whatever money they can. And hacking your computer is one of the hardest ways to access your accounts.

Cocktails: experimental redux.

So I’ve been experimenting with making mixed drinks and cocktails–and this is what I’ve found so far. Warning: this is a highly opinionated and probably incorrect assessment, but this is what I’ve found so far for me.

Spiced rum. An utterly useless ingredient for making mixed drinks. There aren’t that many spiced rum mixed drinks out there–and all of them seem to involve pineapple and coconut in some fashion. And frankly, most of those drinks are improved by simply not adding the rum.

Rum. When I was younger I thought there was only spiced rum–but thankfully I’m wrong. There are clear rums out there–and this is a much more versatile ingredient for mixed drinks. If you have a mixed drink that calls for spiced rum (or, God help you, “Captain Morgan” spiced rum), it will probably be infinitely better with a light colored rum instead.

Gin. I really wanted to like gin, but, alas, I couldn’t. I mean, don’t get me wrong; I liked the Hendricks Gin–though I will admit, it took a while for it to grow on me. The problem is that gins apparently come in such a wide variety of flavors (at least the good stuff, not the stuff that tastes like juniper plants soaked in turpentine) that I’m not really all that clear if I could get consistent results.

Gin drinks also seem a little limited to me: the flavor so overpowers some mixed drink ingredients you’re better off just sipping the gin straight up. (Not neat; that’s where they just pour the stuff into a glass. “Straight up” is where they toss the alcohol in a shaker glass with ice, shake, then serve the stuff chilled. A tiny bit of water and a whole lot of cooling makes the gin better in my opinion.)

And apparently I’m not the only one who has reached this conclusion.

Amaretto. Let me be very clear. I feel deeply sorry for anyone who does not live within the handful of counties where you can buy Oak City Amaretto.

I mean, is it worth buying an airline ticket to Raleigh so you can bring home six bottles of the stuff? Well, I’d try to visit a few of the sights here in the process–so the airline ticket isn’t just about the Amaretto. But I can understand if you just took the return flight a couple of hours later after stuffing your suitcase with the stuff. (Wrap in bubble wrap so the bottles don’t break.)

It is good straight, in a sour, in just about everything I threw at it. I could do no wrong with this Amaretto. I think it should be used to make frosting, almond cookies, in cheesecake, as biscotti; hell, use it in place of vanilla extract for a slight twist in flavor.

Tequila. I have a bit of a soft spot for tequila. Almost every other drink on the planet I despise straight; tequila is the only spirit I can drink straight. Especially if it’s a good 100% agave tequila, preferably clear. So I’m a huge fan of tequila and with tequila I don’t think you can do any wrong as long as it’s matched with a lemon or lime in there somewhere. But I think I’m biased.

Vodka. I’m not sure about vodka. I may need more experimentation. The problem is that vodka–really good vodka–it’s nearly invisible. And sadly when I tried my experiments with vodka I thought “what would the Russians put into it?” Beet juice? Check. Olives? Check. Infuse with rosemary? Check. Cucumber and basil? Well, not yet–but it seems interesting. But I haven’t tried the other drinks; the sweeter drinks. Perhaps I need to get more and try some more experimentation.

Maybe that’s a good sign.

Whiskey. Lets start with the fact that I hate whiskey neat. My thought every time I try to sip room temperature whiskey that has not had any water splashed into it: “what horrible sin did I commit in my past three lives which warrant such a horrible punishment?”

And for full disclaimer: when I tried my whiskey experiments I went ahead and sprung for a good blended Irish whiskey. Because the Irish do whiskey, right? And in point of fact, I used Tillamore Dew, though I forgot it was the whiskey in the linked commercial.

Now something magical happens to whiskey when a small splash of water is added. It’s almost as if the flavor of the whiskey is unlocked and allowed to hit your senses. Straight up, whiskey (that has some ice and was slightly chilled) tastes utterly unlike the neat version.

And more interestingly, if you put in just a dash or two of Angostura bitters, whiskey looses it’s “boozy” taste.

In cocktails, whiskey is magical. You don’t want to overwhelm the flavor of the whiskey–but it certainly can share the stage with just about anything you toss into it. (And if the whiskey flavor is hogging the stage, tame it with a dash of bitters.)

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So that’s my take on the stuff I’ve tried so far. Spiced rum is pointless, rum is good, the really good top-shelf gin probably wants to be drunk straight up so you can taste the complexity rather than burying the complexity in a squeeze of lime and sugar.

Tequila pretends to be my friend and will probably leave me under the table in a Mexican bar somewhere, vodka requires more experimentation, whiskey is the best ingredient I’ve encountered so far–just don’t drink it neat.

And Oak City Amaretto–well, if you don’t live near Raleigh, North Carolina, I’m sorry. I really am.

You know that this is an argument against welfare, right?

Sometimes I read something so incredibly god-awfully stupid guised as intelligent discourse, and I just cannot help myself.

Case in point–in the ever-consistently left-leaning Boing Boing:

Douglas Rushkoff’s sobering view of Universal Basic Income

To the rescue comes UBI. The policy was once thought of as a way of taking extreme poverty off the table. In this new incarnation, however, it merely serves as a way to keep the wealthiest people (and their loyal vassals, the software developers) entrenched at the very top of the economic operating system. Because of course, the cash doled out to citizens by the government will inevitably flow to them.

Think of it: The government prints more money or perhaps — god forbid — it taxes some corporate profits, then it showers the cash down on the people so they can continue to spend. As a result, more and more capital accumulates at the top. And with that capital comes more power to dictate the terms governing human existence.

The original essay is a bit of a meandering mess, of course.

And the essay has received positive reviews from a number of outlets on the Left, including positive reviews on places like Slashdot–in no small part because the original essay holds out the leaders of Uber as greedy assholes advocating for Universal Basic Income so they have more money to spend and more time to drive Uber cars, or something like that.

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But think. Really **THINK** for a second.

What is welfare?

Well, it’s where

The government prints more money or perhaps — god forbid — it taxes some corporate profits, then it showers the cash down on the people so they can continue to spend.

Right?

Right?

(Shakes head.)

I think if you phrase something as angrily as possible, holding up some rich people as the enemy, you can get the left to agree to any stupid-ass fucking moronic idea.

Including opposing welfare.