Failure or War.
I’ve long contended that the Eurozone’s common currency system will either collapse, or it will be held together by war.
That’s simply because the Eurozone represents a wide variety of divergent cultures and divergent interests that share no common ground. And so long as Germany is willing to hand Greece money, Greece has no incentive to reform–further exacerbating the problems in the Eurozone, which then triggers Germany giving Greece more money.
In the end, what cannot go on forever won’t–and either the Euro will fail, or the vicious cycle will be stopped at the barrel of a gun, since the cultural change that will allow Greece to willingly change it’s ways will take a generation or two, while the Eurozone will undoubtedly fail within the next few years.
So call this installment 123 of our ongoing soap opera.
Oh, and to those who may think that my assessment is harsh–that somehow the United States managed to come together as a unified Federal government with a single currency crossing multiple semi-sovereign entities–I should remind you that the United States once had a northern industrious population and a southern population based more on a leisurely agrarian society that was economically poorer than it’s northern neighbors that had a similar socio-economic and political fission line that eventually got mended.
Mended via a Civil War that claimed the lives of 2% of the entire national population–more lives than lost in all other U.S. wars combined, while decimating a substantial portion of the nation’s infrastructure.
A civil war of a similar scope in Europe would claim 6.6 million lives and cost countless trillions in damage–assuming no-one lobs a nuclear warhead.